New Report: Italy General Election 2018: Analysis & Forecast

Published by A. Gagaridis in Insights · 3 March 2018
Tags: Italy, Elections, 2018, Forecast, Analysis

Welcome back!

A new report is here, and it is a particular one. Usually, I write about international affairs, but this time I decided to examine a domestic political matter.

As you may know, the Parliamentary elections will take place in Italy tomorrow, and I decided to analyse this issue. In this paper, I describe how the current electoral system in Italy will impact the vote outcome in terms of parliamentary seats assigned to each political force. Note that I have not the resources to conduct an in-depth analysis, so consider it as an educated guess that made as an experiment... and also to have fun :-)

But you may be wondering why I called it "Analysis & Forecast" if there is no projections on the electoral result. The reason is simple: to avoid any troubles with the laws regulating the publication of political forecast just ahead of the elections, I will first publish a "downgraded" version of the paper containing only the analytical part. Then, after the polling places will be closed at 11:00 p.m. Italian time, I will publish the full version of the paper which will include my projections.

So, this report has by no means the objective of supporting any political force, to provide voting indications or to influence the electoral outcome in any way. Its aim is purely analytic and illustrative; and provides no projections (which will only appear in the full version that I will publish on Sunday 4 March after 11:00 p.m. Italian time.

That said, click here to view the paper!

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