Post-Electoral Evaluations
Welcome back!Italy’s electoral results are now clear, and it’s possible to make a post-vote assessment of my evaluations.
So... my projections were wrong, at least in identifying the winner. Contrarily to my forecast, the political force reaching the roughly 35% of seats (actually more) has been the center-right coalition, not the Democratic Party (DP). Similarly, the ruling DP obtained something less than 25% of seats, and is the main loser. In short, I generally got the winner’s and loser’s share, but not who they would be!
I was somehow surprised by the result (despite various polls had predicted it) because I though the common “vote-for-the-opposition-hoping-things-will-improve” factor (that would favor the right) would have been countered by the fact this coalition’s leader was Berlusconi, who has been object of judicial procedures and widespread critics in the past due to his policies, resulting in social unpopularity and (theoretically) a fall in his credibility. One must admit that he always manages to stand up again…
In regard to the Five Star Movement (FSM), they definitely won much more seats than I (and others) had expected. This is probably due to their widespread victories in the South (has the FSM managed to establish its own strongholds? Only time will tell…).
But there’s something I predicted correctly:
- First, the minor share of Free & Equals (some polls suggested they would gain twice as much seats as they actually have); even though they will not have the coalition potential I foresaw since the left has lost the elections.
- Second, and most importantly, I correctly guessed that the League would take a large share of the right coalition’s seats and even the majority of them, as it actually happened.
Now, it remains to be seen how the next government will look like. Given the FSM, in spite of being the biggest single party, does not have enough seats to rule alone and is considered an anti-system party who does excluded itself / was excluded by others from any coalition, I suppose it will be a right-wing government with many ministers from the League sustained by a “convenience alliance” with the DP (basically, the scenario I imagined in my predictions but with inverted actors).
To sum up, my projections had a mixed accuracy; but considering my limited resources and the fact that electoral issues are far from being my core expertise / interest, this is still a decent result. But now, I’ll go back to international relations: I’m much more passionate and competent in that domain!
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