Geopolitical Realities Threaten to Derail Trump-Kim Summit

Published by A. Gagaridis in Publication · 9 April 2018
Tags: Korea, Kim, Trump, Nuclear, DPRK, USA, China, RoK, Geopolitics

Greetings everyone!

As I promised some time ago when I posted my analysis on the Six Party Talks, I'm back on Korea.

The recent diplomatic developments concerning North Korea, and especially the announcement of a Trump-Kim meeting, have caused much debate among analysts. Many media presented such news as a turning point towards a negotiated solution of the nuclear issue and of the division of the Peninsula, explaining it as a success of tight sanctions (a discourse also heard at the political level).

But if we look at the past, we see that Pyongyang has constantly been using its nuclear programme also as a mean to obtain international economic aid in the logic of regime preservation. As such, it is my opinion that North Korea's offer to negotiate is consistent with its grand strategy, and does not represent any "revolution" of sort. Also, the upcoming talks (provided they ultimately take place) will hardly solve anything, because the geopolitical reality of Korea remains virtually unaltered, with the only relevant difference being that Pyongyang now has nuclear weapons. Time will tell what will happen, but do not expect a brakthrough from these meetings.

To know more, read my article on Geopolitical Monitor, link here.

Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore, Flickr, modified.

[The article was published on April 9, but I actually posted the announcement on the blog only on May 1].

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